SurveyUSA on Clinton and Obama

[ciphergoth]

I finished work on my screen-scraper for SurveyUSA's head-to-head, state-by-state Presidential election results, so it can now incorporate the latest polls as they're published. Here's the latest scattergram, zoomed in:

(see also the zoomed-out scattergram for the whole picture)

Putting that into the Electoral College, we get a narrow win for Clinton or a less narrow loss for Obama. This reflects what the markets are saying: Betfair give Clinton a 73% chance of taking the Presidency, but Obama only a 55% chance.

I had wondered why the Democratic party hadn't just given up and joined the Obama train; it turns out the answer is Florida, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Missouri.

Comments

[altamira16.livejournal.com]

New Jersey? (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/a-barack-obama.html)

[shevek.livejournal.com]

Every time you do something like this, I just sit back and go "wow" and see the world in a whole new light. Thank you. This helps me a lot, especially as I spend so much time over there.

Do you keep an archive of your little toys, or do they just fall into bitrot?

[cjensen.livejournal.com]

You make the best visualizations ever! Thanks!

Sometimes it feels like the Democratic world is swinging toward Obama pretty hard. So I'm really shocked to see the number of states who are very pro-Clinton vs. McCain but very tepid for Obama over McCain. Especially Mass.

[henry_the_cow]

I read that Clinton has promised to cut the already paltry tax on vehicle fuel, so I hope she doesn't win. If we're going to have a president who's a global-warming denier and in the pocket of the oil companies & gas-guzzling masses, let's at least have one who's clearly identified as the enemy instead of one we're "supposed" to like.