SurveyUSA on Clinton and Obama
May. 5th, 2008 12:12 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ciphergothI finished work on my screen-scraper for SurveyUSA's head-to-head, state-by-state Presidential election results, so it can now incorporate the latest polls as they're published. Here's the latest scattergram, zoomed in:
(see also the zoomed-out scattergram for the whole picture)
Putting that into the Electoral College, we get a narrow win for Clinton or a less narrow loss for Obama. This reflects what the markets are saying: Betfair give Clinton a 73% chance of taking the Presidency, but Obama only a 55% chance.
I had wondered why the Democratic party hadn't just given up and joined the Obama train; it turns out the answer is Florida, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Missouri.
Putting that into the Electoral College, we get a narrow win for Clinton or a less narrow loss for Obama. This reflects what the markets are saying: Betfair give Clinton a 73% chance of taking the Presidency, but Obama only a 55% chance.
I had wondered why the Democratic party hadn't just given up and joined the Obama train; it turns out the answer is Florida, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Missouri.
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Date: 2008-05-05 06:12 pm (UTC)I'm embarrassed to say I'm not very good at publishing the code I write, but my plan to fix that is coming together - basically, the plan is that the Mercurial revision control system makes it vastly easier, and work are in favour of this sort of thing so they're hosting a suitable archive. I've already put one, small, Mercurial-related tool up there ( http://hg.opensource.lshift.net/ ), and stuff like this will follow soon I hope. It doesn't feel publishable quite yet.