ciphergoth: (election)
Oliver Burkeman captures what's in my head:
Personally, I'm more worried about withdrawal symptoms: not the identity of the winner, but the abrupt halt, after so many months, of the race. It's hard to imagine the day will come when I won't be interested to know about a three-point shift in the voting preferences of white Catholics in Virginia, or the scale of the Republican National Committee's TV advertising purchases in Colorado, but presumably it will. Actually, a scarier thought: maybe it won't. Come 2010 - as the ever more greying President Obama dials back on another policy promise, citing the absence of funds - perhaps I'll still be sitting in a darkened room, compulsively checking and the Gallup daily tracking poll, over and over, like a conditioned laboratory rat, or a formerly captive bear that doesn't realise it's been freed.
ciphergoth: (election)
I must buy champagne and popcorn. Champagne, of course, for November 4th, when (barring either a major event between now and then or electoral fraud on a scale I think even the Republicans would find hard to pull off) Barack Obama will be elected the 44th President of the United States.

But popcorn for the upcoming bloody civil war within the GOP! There's plenty to say about this, but this is worth a giggle. Right Wing News emailed more than 240 right-of-center bloggers and asked them to answer questions about the election. 76 blogs responded.
October 27, 2008

1) Who do you think is going to win the election?

A) John McCain: 53% (39)
B) Barack Obama: 47% (34)

2) Do you think Sarah Palin has been a plus or a minus to the ticket?

A) Minus: 9% (7)
B) Plus: 91% (68)

3) How do you feel about Sarah Palin as a candidate?

A) I really like her!: 80% (61)
B) She's so-so.: 12% (9)
C) I'm not a big fan!: 8% (6)

4) The Republican Party did poorly in the 2006 election and even if McCain wins is on track to do poorly again in this year's Congressional races. If you had to choose between these two options, do you think that's because they were...

A) Too conservative: 9% (7)
B) Not conservative enough: 91% (67)
ciphergoth: (election)
I've incorporated some but not all of your suggestions - I don't quite have time to describe why I made the choices I did, I'll do that in a later post.Read more... )
ciphergoth: (election)
Imagine for a moment that it's 2:30 AM London time on November 5th and like me, you've stayed up late to watch the US elections. Six states have been called so far: Vermont and Virginia for Obama, and Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina and Kentucky for McCain. You go to my election page and see this diagram: Read more... )

Does it make sense to you? How could I improve it?


Update: wow, a flood of very helpful comments, thanks so much, keep them coming!
ciphergoth: (Default)
David Sedaris on undecided voters:
I look at these people and can’t quite believe that they exist. Are they professional actors? I wonder. Or are they simply laymen who want a lot of attention?

To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?”

To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.
(nb the rest of the article isn't as funny)
ciphergoth: (election)
Obviously the left-to-right political spectrum is a massive oversimplification, but just trying to squeeze politics into one dimension for a moment, I have a question...

[Poll #1281545]
ciphergoth: (Default)
This witty campaign ad tickled me: embedded video )

In an almost misstep-free campaign, Obama's biggest misstep was encouraging the 527s like to shut down. Once the fire started coming in from the Republican 527s, he reversed his position, but it took them a while to get back into play.

How come they're allowed to use words like "vote", "elect" and such, btw? I thought there was a list of key words that 527s weren't allowed to use? Or have I been watching too much West Wing?
ciphergoth: (election)
So you know why I'm so chipper :-) I'm working on my Election Day web application. Read more... )
ciphergoth: (Default)
Two recent polls have Obama ahead in Florida by four to five points. The polls currently show Obama having a 74 vote lead in the Electoral College. My lovely graphs are starting to keel over, because all the lines are bunching up at the top: they currently show that Obama would have a 55-75% chance of victory even if he were to lose three percentage points against McCain nationally; on current form they show an 88-99% chance of victory.

This November we could be looking at total meltdown of the Republican party, with wipeouts not only in the Presidential elections but in the House and the Senate too. The Dems could have a sufficient majority to kill off the ridiculous procedural crap the GOP keep pulling. Let's just hope they find enough spine to use it.

Updated: Of course, this is before the coming advertising blitz has its effect. John McCain has announced that he's going to join the Federal "matched funds" programme, which means that he accepts a donation cap of $84.1M in return for a matching $84.1M from the Federal purse, giving him about $170M to spend on advertising in the coming months. This programme has been in place since 1972 and all Presidential candidates have accepted the matching funds in that time.

Except for Barack Obama, who announced yesterday that he will not be taking part in the scheme. This is because the Obama camp anticipate raising up to $500M from donations, largely small donations made online. In other words, starting from a seemingly unassailable lead in the polls, Obama will outspend his rival 3:1.

Oh, and just in case that's not enough, the Democrats are also going to sue John McCain for violation of campaign finance rules he signed into law.



ciphergoth: (Default)
Paul Crowley

December 2018

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