SurveyUSA on Clinton and Obama

[ciphergoth]

I finished work on my screen-scraper for SurveyUSA's head-to-head, state-by-state Presidential election results, so it can now incorporate the latest polls as they're published. Here's the latest scattergram, zoomed in:

(see also the zoomed-out scattergram for the whole picture)

Putting that into the Electoral College, we get a narrow win for Clinton or a less narrow loss for Obama. This reflects what the markets are saying: Betfair give Clinton a 73% chance of taking the Presidency, but Obama only a 55% chance.

I had wondered why the Democratic party hadn't just given up and joined the Obama train; it turns out the answer is Florida, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Missouri.

Comments

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

See the bar chart - against these results, Obama needs to win New Jersey and North Carolina to take the presidency. NJ is way too close to call; NC is a little harder. Texas would give him a lock on the college, and is way outside Clinton's reach, but those big five are all vital battleground states.