SurveyUSA on Clinton and Obama

[ciphergoth]

I finished work on my screen-scraper for SurveyUSA's head-to-head, state-by-state Presidential election results, so it can now incorporate the latest polls as they're published. Here's the latest scattergram, zoomed in:

(see also the zoomed-out scattergram for the whole picture)

Putting that into the Electoral College, we get a narrow win for Clinton or a less narrow loss for Obama. This reflects what the markets are saying: Betfair give Clinton a 73% chance of taking the Presidency, but Obama only a 55% chance.

I had wondered why the Democratic party hadn't just given up and joined the Obama train; it turns out the answer is Florida, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Missouri.

Comments

[altamira16.livejournal.com]

New Jersey? (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/a-barack-obama.html)

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

New Jersey!

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

See the bar chart - against these results, Obama needs to win New Jersey and North Carolina to take the presidency. NJ is way too close to call; NC is a little harder. Texas would give him a lock on the college, and is way outside Clinton's reach, but those big five are all vital battleground states.

[zotz]

Also . . .

That page lists six polls for NJ, of which Obama is ahead in three and McCain in three. The corresponding page for Clinton vs McCain has her ahead in five out of six. The site also currently estimates an almost-exact draw for Obama vs McCain, but a definite victory for Clinton against McCain, although if anything I would guess (I could very easily be wrong here - it's just an impression) that Tanenbaum would rather Obama won.