SurveyUSA on Clinton and Obama

[ciphergoth]

I finished work on my screen-scraper for SurveyUSA's head-to-head, state-by-state Presidential election results, so it can now incorporate the latest polls as they're published. Here's the latest scattergram, zoomed in:

(see also the zoomed-out scattergram for the whole picture)

Putting that into the Electoral College, we get a narrow win for Clinton or a less narrow loss for Obama. This reflects what the markets are saying: Betfair give Clinton a 73% chance of taking the Presidency, but Obama only a 55% chance.

I had wondered why the Democratic party hadn't just given up and joined the Obama train; it turns out the answer is Florida, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Missouri.

Comments

[cjensen.livejournal.com]

You make the best visualizations ever! Thanks!

Sometimes it feels like the Democratic world is swinging toward Obama pretty hard. So I'm really shocked to see the number of states who are very pro-Clinton vs. McCain but very tepid for Obama over McCain. Especially Mass.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Thanks!

This is what you get if you use only SurveyUSA data; they seem to be a good company but some of that is pretty out of date. I've just written code to read in the poll aggregate results from http://www.electoralvote.com/ and I get slightly different results:

http://hacks.ciphergoth.org/clinton_v_obama/2008-05-05-electoral-vote/

New Jersey is now in the firmly Democratic column for either candidate. But the margin charts are still showing a clear victory for Clinton and a knife-edged fight for Obama.