SurveyUSA on Clinton and Obama
May. 5th, 2008 12:12 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ciphergothI finished work on my screen-scraper for SurveyUSA's head-to-head, state-by-state Presidential election results, so it can now incorporate the latest polls as they're published. Here's the latest scattergram, zoomed in:
(see also the zoomed-out scattergram for the whole picture)
Putting that into the Electoral College, we get a narrow win for Clinton or a less narrow loss for Obama. This reflects what the markets are saying: Betfair give Clinton a 73% chance of taking the Presidency, but Obama only a 55% chance.
I had wondered why the Democratic party hadn't just given up and joined the Obama train; it turns out the answer is Florida, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Missouri.
Putting that into the Electoral College, we get a narrow win for Clinton or a less narrow loss for Obama. This reflects what the markets are saying: Betfair give Clinton a 73% chance of taking the Presidency, but Obama only a 55% chance.
I had wondered why the Democratic party hadn't just given up and joined the Obama train; it turns out the answer is Florida, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Missouri.
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no subject
Date: 2008-05-06 07:58 am (UTC)This is what you get if you use only SurveyUSA data; they seem to be a good company but some of that is pretty out of date. I've just written code to read in the poll aggregate results from http://www.electoralvote.com/ and I get slightly different results:
http://hacks.ciphergoth.org/clinton_v_obama/2008-05-05-electoral-vote/
New Jersey is now in the firmly Democratic column for either candidate. But the margin charts are still showing a clear victory for Clinton and a knife-edged fight for Obama.