Ways the singularity could fail to happen

[ciphergoth]

Dashing off a quick post with some half-formed thoughts just to see what people think. When I refer to the singularity here, I mean it in the intelligence explosion sense. I'm trying to categorize the different ways the singularity could fail to happen, here are the categories I've come up with so far:

• Human minds might be fundamentally different to other physical things, and not subject to thinking about like an engineer
• The idea of one mind being greatly more efficient than another might not be meaningful
• Human minds might be within a few orders of magnitude of the most efficient minds possible in principle in our Universe
• ... as above in our corner of the Universe
• ... as above given the height of our physical knowledge
• ... as above given the limitations of the height of our manufacturing ability
• ... as above given the limitations of the height of our design ability
• We might not continue to study the problem, or the relevant fields necessary
• We might hit an existential risk before reaching the heights of our potential
• We might have the ability to build superintelligent minds, but choose not to do so
• We might build superintelligent minds and it not make a great difference to the world

What have I missed out?

EDITED TO ADD 15:20: just added "The idea of one mind being greatly more efficient than another might not be meaningful", which is a popular one.

Comments

[ciphergoth]

Thanks, I like this!

I don't think 8 counts though. After all, we can always try again, unless one of the other factors intervenes.

[djm4]

"We might in principle be able to create superintelligent minds and try, repeatedly, but always fail."

It's a tricky one, because we'd probably never know that it was possible, so it would only be apparent to an entity with a hypothetical external perspective. After all, if we consistently fail to do something, in what sense are we 'able' to do it? It's the free will vs determinism discussion all over again.

So it might not count for that reason. But I think it's valid, myself.