Ways the singularity could fail to happen

[ciphergoth]

Dashing off a quick post with some half-formed thoughts just to see what people think. When I refer to the singularity here, I mean it in the intelligence explosion sense. I'm trying to categorize the different ways the singularity could fail to happen, here are the categories I've come up with so far:

• Human minds might be fundamentally different to other physical things, and not subject to thinking about like an engineer
• The idea of one mind being greatly more efficient than another might not be meaningful
• Human minds might be within a few orders of magnitude of the most efficient minds possible in principle in our Universe
• ... as above in our corner of the Universe
• ... as above given the height of our physical knowledge
• ... as above given the limitations of the height of our manufacturing ability
• ... as above given the limitations of the height of our design ability
• We might not continue to study the problem, or the relevant fields necessary
• We might hit an existential risk before reaching the heights of our potential
• We might have the ability to build superintelligent minds, but choose not to do so
• We might build superintelligent minds and it not make a great difference to the world

What have I missed out?

EDITED TO ADD 15:20: just added "The idea of one mind being greatly more efficient than another might not be meaningful", which is a popular one.

Comments

[http://sucs.org/~pwb/wordpress/]

You can classify these reasons to some extent. I think the problems I perceived before (and attempted to express on Twitter) are due to the detail making me think too much :) Consider this the rewrite you asked for.

0. The singularity might happen, but not be the earth-shaking event we thought it would be.

I. The singularity might be impossible for humans to cause.
1. The concept of continually self-improving minds might not be coherent.
2. Human minds might already be close to the best minds possible in principle.
3. Self-improving superhuman intelligence might be possible, but not reachable from the human condition. (This summarises several of the reasons you list.)

II. Humans might fail to cause the singularity for contingent reasons.
4. We might not study the problem.
5. We might lose the ability (knowledge or resources) to make superintelligent minds.
6. We might become extinct before it happens. (Subsumed by (4) and (5), but a notable special case.)
7. We might consciously choose not to create superintelligent minds even though we can.
8. We might be able to create superintelligent minds and try, but fail.
9. Superintelligent minds might not improve themselves, even though they can.

[ciphergoth]

Thanks, I like this!

I don't think 8 counts though. After all, we can always try again, unless one of the other factors intervenes.

[djm4]

"We might in principle be able to create superintelligent minds and try, repeatedly, but always fail."

It's a tricky one, because we'd probably never know that it was possible, so it would only be apparent to an entity with a hypothetical external perspective. After all, if we consistently fail to do something, in what sense are we 'able' to do it? It's the free will vs determinism discussion all over again.

So it might not count for that reason. But I think it's valid, myself.