Cognitive bias

[ciphergoth]

Roughly, "cognitive bias" is the empirical study of systematic, irrational biases that we all show to some extent or other in the way we think about the world. These biases can be demonstrated in controlled experimental settings, where we can largely rule out rational explanations for the behaviours seen.

One example is anchoring: asked whether they thought an unknown quantity was more or less than a number produced in front of them using a roulette wheel, subsequent guesses at what the number was were irrationally close to the number the roulette wheel produced. Their guesses had been "anchored" on the number they'd previously been given, even though they knew it was a random number.

I'm curious to know whether this is something people think about much, hence this (fairly imperfect) poll. Where I say "people" below, I mean people demographically roughly like you.

For those not familiar with the convention "snowflake" means "none of these answers fit what I'd like to say, so I'll comment below and explain". thehalibutkid, we await your comment :-)

[Poll #1327489]

I'm thinking about this because I've just finished reading "Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me)", and I'm about to start on "Predictably Irrational", both of which are pop science books in this field. See also Wikipedia's list of cognitive biases.

Please do comment with any thoughts the poll doesn't cover, of course!

Comments

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Have you read "Blink"? The discussion of the implicit association test and the ways it reveals on how to reduce unconcious bias is pretty interesting.

One happy conclusion is that having a black President is likely to substantially reduce racism simply because it will give people a new association to go with a black face.

[skibbley.livejournal.com]

Yes, and I hadn't made the connection to a black President.

"Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear" by Dan Gardner is pretty good although I am intrigued as to why Gardner and Bruce Schneier don't reference each other.

[deliberateblank.livejournal.com]

Because they're both trying to sell books discussing exactly the same thing, and most people only have room on the shelf for one?

[jhg.livejournal.com]

Interesting - that reminds me of something RTD said regarding the visibility of same-sex relationships - i.e. on telly etc. - as a way of combating homophobia.

In short he said that people have a picture in their heads of a man with a woman. 2 men together breaks that picture, and so people are confused/scared/hateful etc.

The only way to break that is by visibility - showing happy same-sex relationships etc.