Artificial Intelligence and the year 2047

[ciphergoth]

Clarification: By "smart" I mean general smarts: the sort of smarts that allow you to do things like pass a Turing test or solve open problems in nanotechnology. Obviously computers are ahead of humans in narrow domains like playing chess.

NB: your guess as to what will happen should also be one of your guesses about what might happen - thanks! This applies to wriggler, ablueskyboy, thekumquat, redcountess, thehalibutkid, henry_the_cow and cillygirl. If you tick only one option (which is not the last) in the first poll, it means you think it's the only possible outcome.

[Poll #1103617]

And of course, I'm fascinated to know why you make those guesses. In particular - I'm surprised how many people think it's likely that machines as smart as humans might emerge while nothing smarter comes of it, and I'd love to hear more about that position.

Comments

[djm4]

It might. But intelligent thought might well require interaction with the real world, and it may not be possible to speed up how quickly that happens in any useful way.

See also 'control systems engineering: how to make a system unstable by making it too sensitive to small changes, and too fast to respond'. ;-)

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Well, all right, but it might still have a useful thing or two to say once it's read every scientific paper and every book ever published.

(moved to correct comment, sorry!)

[drdoug.livejournal.com]

This thought inspired me to do something silly.