Artificial Intelligence and the year 2047

[ciphergoth]

Clarification: By "smart" I mean general smarts: the sort of smarts that allow you to do things like pass a Turing test or solve open problems in nanotechnology. Obviously computers are ahead of humans in narrow domains like playing chess.

NB: your guess as to what will happen should also be one of your guesses about what might happen - thanks! This applies to wriggler, ablueskyboy, thekumquat, redcountess, thehalibutkid, henry_the_cow and cillygirl. If you tick only one option (which is not the last) in the first poll, it means you think it's the only possible outcome.

[Poll #1103617]

And of course, I'm fascinated to know why you make those guesses. In particular - I'm surprised how many people think it's likely that machines as smart as humans might emerge while nothing smarter comes of it, and I'd love to hear more about that position.

Comments

[zotz]

It does depend on what you mean, but mainly I suspect that this is going to be very like fusion power, which I suspect is why you picked 40 years as a term.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Actually I picked it because I think most of us expect to live at least another forty years.

[zotz]

I wouldn't count on it, personally.

[jhg.livejournal.com]

Barring accidents, I expect to live at least another 60 years!

[zotz]

Even barring accidents, I've known people die before 40, and I expect this to continue.

[jhg.livejournal.com]

Most of us won't though. I hope not.

[zotz]

Indeed, but "expect" is overconfident when it refers to something at or below the average now, and not far below the average by then according to current trends.

[drdoug.livejournal.com]

Interesting verb, "expect" - to me it conjures up expectation values and hence one's best guess, which for UK people in their mid-to-late-30s (guessing at the composition of ciphergoth's FL) is definitely north of 40 years for men and 45 years for women IIRC.

"Count on", though, is another thing, as you pointed out earlier on in this thread. I'm not counting on living more than another 40 years, but I expect to.

I'm not counting on dying before then either, or I wouldn't be shovelling all this cash in to a pension for one thing. I'm trying to ensure that my plans cope well with all options between reaching well beyond the ton-up and dropping down dead of a massive brain haemorrhage before I finish posting this comment.

(Which latter would be rather tragic for my nearest and dearest but would at least mean people at my funeral could all say things like "Well he didn't want to go but he'd have really appreciated the manner.")

[topbit.livejournal.com]

Barring accidents, if I live another 40 years (relatively safe bet), I will also expect to be alive in 1000 years.

[jhg.livejournal.com]

Really? I'm aware of great apparent strides in the various researches, but somehow I find that unlikely.

[topbit.livejournal.com]

You may forget though - we aren't talking about technology that exists today that will help reduce medical reasons (especially ageing) for death, but also the advances of the next 40 years as well. How far have we also come in understanding the human body in the last 40 years? More to the point, how far do you think the human race could get in the next 40?

As for 'living forever', here's another term for it: Actuarial escape velocity (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_escape_velocity). And with all that, knowledge, technology and basic science across all fields is accelerating.

(edit: how far in the next 40?)

[seph-hazard.livejournal.com]

God, I'll be fifty-eight. That's old.

[lovingboth]

Possibly, but it's closer for some of us.

Personal definition, 'old' = 'twenty years older than me' :)

[seph-hazard.livejournal.com]

Thirty-eight's not old! [grin] Oh dear. I should stop rubbing it in, really, or you'll all get your own back some day when I start getting wrinkles and falling asleep in front of the telly...

[jhg.livejournal.com]

Well it's all relative isn't it. I'm fitter than most people 15 years more junior, as well as doing a lot more clubbing etc. than many of them.

I confidently expect the same to be true when I'm 58!