Help abolish tactical voting: vote tactically tomorrow to keep the Tories out

[ciphergoth]

Please vote tactically to keep the Tories out.

This is what I want to say to everyone before you vote tomorrow, but it's aimed especially at Liberal Democrat supporters in Lab/Con marginal seats. I'm not a Liberal Democrat but I would like you to do as well as possible tomorrow because there's an awful lot of your agenda I want heard - especially voting reform.

Looking at the betting odds, it's pretty clear that the only plausible outcomes are a hung parliament or a Tory majority; there's no chance of a Labour majority.

In the event of a hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats will likely wield many votes and have considerable power to advance their agenda, power they've never had before. In particular, there's every chance they'll finally be able to force through the voting reform we've all waited for for so long; voting reform that will mean that the party finally gets the voice that its popular support would warrant. What we're calling a Liberal Democrat "moment" could be a lasting Liberal Democrat revolution.

In the event of a Tory majority, even a slim one, exactly the opposite will happen. Just like George W Bush in 2000, they're singing a centrist song now, but will rule to their own agenda once they have power. They won't reform voting - their 10% seat cut is no reform and could unbalance things further.

There hasn't been a hung parliament for (ISTR) 35 years, so opportunities like this don't come often. Of course plugging hard at length is an important part of winning, but so is seizing opportunities to break barriers that you might not get another chance to break for a very long time. And that means voting Labour where they are the only candidate who can beat the Tory.

I'm talking here about the consequences of your vote. There's a temptation to choose your vote based on whether you'll enjoy telling people about it. I know not everyone feels this way, but to me one action is better than another if it brings about better consequences. I'm asking you to choose yours on the basis of what might actually happen as a result. We can do away with the ridiculous problem with our voting system that means I have to ask you this. But it means voting whatever way you need to vote tomorrow to prevent a Tory majority.

Guardian guide to tactical voting

Comments

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Here's the market: http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=100603656 currently has the Tories on between an 19% and 32% chance of winning.

One cost of not voting Labour is that it makes a Tory win in that seat that much more likely. One cost of voting Labour is that as you indicate you might not feel good about it. How do you prioritize these costs?

[green-badger.livejournal.com]

This is why I swapped my vote. I can feel good about it because someone else cast my Lib Dem vote for me. :) xxx

[owdbetts.livejournal.com]

I'm not sure how much you should read into these markets. They don't appear to have much market depth, and in any case I'm not sure it's an efficient market. By and large, all anyone participating in these markets has to go on is the polls, with all the empirical fudges that go into producing them, and the uniform national swing model, which is itself an empirical fudge.

No one knows how or if any of this machinery will work in a three-horse race. I think there's a fair chance that this will be one of those elections where all the polsters (including the exit polls) get it absolutely dreadfully wrong, requiring new empirical methodological fudges in future polling (think 1992). Of course, I have no idea in which direction they will be wrong.

-roy