ciphergoth: (election)
[personal profile] ciphergoth
Please vote tactically to keep the Tories out.

This is what I want to say to everyone before you vote tomorrow, but it's aimed especially at Liberal Democrat supporters in Lab/Con marginal seats. I'm not a Liberal Democrat but I would like you to do as well as possible tomorrow because there's an awful lot of your agenda I want heard - especially voting reform.

Looking at the betting odds, it's pretty clear that the only plausible outcomes are a hung parliament or a Tory majority; there's no chance of a Labour majority.

In the event of a hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats will likely wield many votes and have considerable power to advance their agenda, power they've never had before. In particular, there's every chance they'll finally be able to force through the voting reform we've all waited for for so long; voting reform that will mean that the party finally gets the voice that its popular support would warrant. What we're calling a Liberal Democrat "moment" could be a lasting Liberal Democrat revolution.

In the event of a Tory majority, even a slim one, exactly the opposite will happen. Just like George W Bush in 2000, they're singing a centrist song now, but will rule to their own agenda once they have power. They won't reform voting - their 10% seat cut is no reform and could unbalance things further.

There hasn't been a hung parliament for (ISTR) 35 years, so opportunities like this don't come often. Of course plugging hard at length is an important part of winning, but so is seizing opportunities to break barriers that you might not get another chance to break for a very long time. And that means voting Labour where they are the only candidate who can beat the Tory.

I'm talking here about the consequences of your vote. There's a temptation to choose your vote based on whether you'll enjoy telling people about it. I know not everyone feels this way, but to me one action is better than another if it brings about better consequences. I'm asking you to choose yours on the basis of what might actually happen as a result. We can do away with the ridiculous problem with our voting system that means I have to ask you this. But it means voting whatever way you need to vote tomorrow to prevent a Tory majority.

Guardian guide to tactical voting

Re: If your vote doesn't matter...

Date: 2010-05-06 07:30 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
I did consider it, but it's a dangerous strategy. Labour are well established no matter how you vote, but every leg up makes a real difference to UKIP. If you can donate specifically to their campaign in a particular constituency, it could be tempting.

Since I spent this election campaign rather poor, it didn't arise :-)

Re: If your vote doesn't matter...

Date: 2010-05-06 11:27 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] palmer1984.livejournal.com
What? Did I read this right? You'd consider contributing to the middle class BNP to keep the Tories out?

Re: If your vote doesn't matter...

Date: 2010-05-06 04:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] damerell.livejournal.com
"Let's you and him fight" worked for the Byzantine Empire for centuries. :-)

Re: If your vote doesn't matter...

Date: 2010-05-06 11:29 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] palmer1984.livejournal.com
ARGH, no, you can't think that. Giving UKIP a larger share of the vote is just a bad idea.

Re: If your vote doesn't matter...

Date: 2010-05-06 01:08 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] green-badger.livejournal.com
Agreed. Dreadful idea.

Re: If your vote doesn't matter...

Date: 2010-05-06 01:10 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
Certainly I think it would take a pretty bizarre confluence of events for the payoffs to outweigh the costs.

Re: If your vote doesn't matter...

Date: 2010-05-06 09:48 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] palmer1984.livejournal.com
Surely if UKIP got a seat from the Tories they'd just go into coalition with the Tories in a hung parliament.

Re: If your vote doesn't matter...

Date: 2010-05-06 09:52 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
It would be crazy to do if there was any danger of UKIP winning the seat. You'd only do it if their defeat was certain, but there was a chance they'd leech enough votes off the Tories to deny them the seat.

Re: If your vote doesn't matter...

Date: 2010-05-06 09:53 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
Even then, it would be pretty rare circumstances where it was worth the downsides.

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Paul Crowley

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