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ciphergothPlease vote tactically to keep the Tories out.
This is what I want to say to everyone before you vote tomorrow, but it's aimed especially at Liberal Democrat supporters in Lab/Con marginal seats. I'm not a Liberal Democrat but I would like you to do as well as possible tomorrow because there's an awful lot of your agenda I want heard - especially voting reform.
Looking at the betting odds, it's pretty clear that the only plausible outcomes are a hung parliament or a Tory majority; there's no chance of a Labour majority.
In the event of a hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats will likely wield many votes and have considerable power to advance their agenda, power they've never had before. In particular, there's every chance they'll finally be able to force through the voting reform we've all waited for for so long; voting reform that will mean that the party finally gets the voice that its popular support would warrant. What we're calling a Liberal Democrat "moment" could be a lasting Liberal Democrat revolution.
In the event of a Tory majority, even a slim one, exactly the opposite will happen. Just like George W Bush in 2000, they're singing a centrist song now, but will rule to their own agenda once they have power. They won't reform voting - their 10% seat cut is no reform and could unbalance things further.
There hasn't been a hung parliament for (ISTR) 35 years, so opportunities like this don't come often. Of course plugging hard at length is an important part of winning, but so is seizing opportunities to break barriers that you might not get another chance to break for a very long time. And that means voting Labour where they are the only candidate who can beat the Tory.
I'm talking here about the consequences of your vote. There's a temptation to choose your vote based on whether you'll enjoy telling people about it. I know not everyone feels this way, but to me one action is better than another if it brings about better consequences. I'm asking you to choose yours on the basis of what might actually happen as a result. We can do away with the ridiculous problem with our voting system that means I have to ask you this. But it means voting whatever way you need to vote tomorrow to prevent a Tory majority.
Guardian guide to tactical voting
This is what I want to say to everyone before you vote tomorrow, but it's aimed especially at Liberal Democrat supporters in Lab/Con marginal seats. I'm not a Liberal Democrat but I would like you to do as well as possible tomorrow because there's an awful lot of your agenda I want heard - especially voting reform.
Looking at the betting odds, it's pretty clear that the only plausible outcomes are a hung parliament or a Tory majority; there's no chance of a Labour majority.
In the event of a hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats will likely wield many votes and have considerable power to advance their agenda, power they've never had before. In particular, there's every chance they'll finally be able to force through the voting reform we've all waited for for so long; voting reform that will mean that the party finally gets the voice that its popular support would warrant. What we're calling a Liberal Democrat "moment" could be a lasting Liberal Democrat revolution.
In the event of a Tory majority, even a slim one, exactly the opposite will happen. Just like George W Bush in 2000, they're singing a centrist song now, but will rule to their own agenda once they have power. They won't reform voting - their 10% seat cut is no reform and could unbalance things further.
There hasn't been a hung parliament for (ISTR) 35 years, so opportunities like this don't come often. Of course plugging hard at length is an important part of winning, but so is seizing opportunities to break barriers that you might not get another chance to break for a very long time. And that means voting Labour where they are the only candidate who can beat the Tory.
I'm talking here about the consequences of your vote. There's a temptation to choose your vote based on whether you'll enjoy telling people about it. I know not everyone feels this way, but to me one action is better than another if it brings about better consequences. I'm asking you to choose yours on the basis of what might actually happen as a result. We can do away with the ridiculous problem with our voting system that means I have to ask you this. But it means voting whatever way you need to vote tomorrow to prevent a Tory majority.
Guardian guide to tactical voting
no subject
Date: 2010-05-06 07:28 am (UTC)I don't think you've correctly judged my levels of optimism there, by the way, I don't think he's a shoe-in, but I think it's a fairly close four-way marginal and that he has a way better than 1/44 chance of winning. (And that's likely to be very hard to tell from the result tomorrow, as we won't be able to examine all the parallel universes where a few small changes led to a different vote share for everyone).
no subject
Date: 2010-05-06 09:36 am (UTC)Obviously the odds for the overall result - with more people betting on it - are going to be harder to affect by putting money on them, but I still wouldn't rely on them too much.
I put a lot more faith in markets where there is more money than where there is less - I've even cautioned about this on Twitter when talking about Poplar and Limehouse.
no subject
Date: 2010-05-07 08:50 am (UTC)Yes, and with only one throw of the dice, the chances are still that I won't win, even if my expected winnings are mathematically good.
In any case, just to be clear, I was specifically betting on this to see how much even a small amount could change the odds. (Had I won - which I clearly haven't - I'd have donated the proceeds to BiCon's helping hand fund ;-).