I'm not sure how much you should read into these markets. They don't appear to have much market depth, and in any case I'm not sure it's an efficient market. By and large, all anyone participating in these markets has to go on is the polls, with all the empirical fudges that go into producing them, and the uniform national swing model, which is itself an empirical fudge.
No one knows how or if any of this machinery will work in a three-horse race. I think there's a fair chance that this will be one of those elections where all the polsters (including the exit polls) get it absolutely dreadfully wrong, requiring new empirical methodological fudges in future polling (think 1992). Of course, I have no idea in which direction they will be wrong.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2010-05-06 08:17 pm (UTC)No one knows how or if any of this machinery will work in a three-horse race. I think there's a fair chance that this will be one of those elections where all the polsters (including the exit polls) get it absolutely dreadfully wrong, requiring new empirical methodological fudges in future polling (think 1992). Of course, I have no idea in which direction they will be wrong.
-roy