Well, I still have unmatched bets at 1/43, so I'm a bit surprised that he got to 1/44 again without someone matching those. The point is, though, that the long-odds bets are very shallow in terms of money. You don't have to spend much to make them disappear. Of course, you have to be prepared to lose the money, which I'm not for any substantial amount - I was really just seeing how much I could affect the odds. Obviously the odds for the overall result - with more people betting on it - are going to be harder to affect by putting money on them, but I still wouldn't rely on them too much.
I don't think you've correctly judged my levels of optimism there, by the way, I don't think he's a shoe-in, but I think it's a fairly close four-way marginal and that he has a way better than 1/44 chance of winning. (And that's likely to be very hard to tell from the result tomorrow, as we won't be able to examine all the parallel universes where a few small changes led to a different vote share for everyone).
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2010-05-06 07:28 am (UTC)I don't think you've correctly judged my levels of optimism there, by the way, I don't think he's a shoe-in, but I think it's a fairly close four-way marginal and that he has a way better than 1/44 chance of winning. (And that's likely to be very hard to tell from the result tomorrow, as we won't be able to examine all the parallel universes where a few small changes led to a different vote share for everyone).