Evaluating future technology

[ciphergoth]

How do you tell a reasonable guess about what future technology might bring (eg a manned mission to Mars) from unreasonable guesses (eg teleportation)?

I'm inclined to think that you have to get down to the technical nitty-gritty. If you don't know the field, it might be reasonable to think that in the future we'll prove that our ciphers are unbreakable. Actually, for everyday useful ciphers, a proof that they are secure with no unproven assumptions is much harder than you might think if you've not studied CS. There's no reason I'd expect you to know that if you're not a computer scientist, but if your vision of the near future included provably unbreakable ciphers, I'd want to explain why that doesn't look very likely at the moment.

What do you think?

Comments

[fizzyboot.livejournal.com]

How do you tell a reasonable guess about what future technology might bring (eg a manned mission to Mars) from unreasonable guesses (eg teleportation)?

Going to Mars doesn't require any fundamental breakthroughs, just lots of money and detailed engineering.

Teleportation does require fundamental breakthroughs.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Isn't this just the same question reposed with different words?

[palmer1984.livejournal.com]

I don't think that it was. It was certainly clearer than your question.

[fizzyboot.livejournal.com]

Um, no, I don't think so. Perhaps you'd like to explain why you think it is just the same question rephrased.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Well it moves us to what constitutes "requiring a fundamental breakthrough". Perhaps you're right that that is a different question, but it's also one I'm not sure how to answer!

[fizzyboot.livejournal.com]

what constitutes "requiring a fundamental breakthrough"

I guess it's like what the judge said about porn: I'll know it when I see it.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

OK, but if you and I disagree on whether a posited technological advance requires a technical breakthrough, how will we resolve our difference? Or if I'm not sure myself, what would I look for to find out?

[fizzyboot.livejournal.com]

if you and I disagree on whether a posited technological advance requires a technical breakthrough, how will we resolve our difference?

By, as you say, getting down to the technical nitty-gritty.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

OK, that makes sense, thanks!