OECD leading indicators

[ciphergoth]

a tiny, tiny flicker of hope on the global and UK economy. Not that I have the expertise to know how much this means. *crosses fingers*

Comments

[andrewducker]

My own, merely vaguely educated, guess would be that we're seeing the bottoming out of the credit crisis - people no long fear that the banks are going to collapse and this is what's caused the increase in the FTSE and in particular the rise in the share prices of the banks in the last couple of weeks.

However, we're still in a recession and we have amazingly large debts. This is going to take a while to come out of - and this will keep things depressed for 2-10 years (2 years to come out of the worst of it, _at least_ 10 years to actually get the debt back down to a more manageable level).

In addition, the power of the western economies has been shaken, and the imbalances between them and India/China will change dramatically over the next few years, as they correct themselves. I suspect that this crisis/recession will be seen as a tipping point.

Oh, and I expect our inflation to be significantly higher over the next five years than it was over the previous five, which will accelerate this still further.

So, yes, probably over the worst of the worst, but things aren't going to be easy.