The "mere token" effect

[ciphergoth]

Happened across a fascinating new cognitive bias today: the "mere token" effect. In summary:

• If you offer people a choice between $300 in a week or $900 in a year, 62% of respondents choose the $300 in a week.
• If you tell them that, immediately after they choose, you're going to give them $50, and then present them with the same choice, they make roughly the same decision.
• If you offer them a choice between $50 now and $300 in a week, or $50 now and $900 in a year, suddenly 52% of respondents choose the $900 in a year option.

Obviously there's no rational reason to make a different choice in the second and third scenarios, the options in both scenarios are really the same, but the difference in the way they are presented makes a huge difference to people's responses.

It's worth noting that hyperbolic discounting with intertemporal bargaining, the model presented in "Breakdown of Will" that I've enthused about before, completely fails to predict this phenomenon.

Scope Insensitivity and the "Mere Token" Effect, Oleg Urminsky, 2006.

Update: I've edited the second point above: it used to read "If you give them $50, and then present them with the same choice, they make roughly the same decision". This gives the misleading impression that there's some difference in substance between the second and third points, which resulted in some discussions below. I hope that with the new phrasing, it's clear that there is no real difference at all between the second and third scenario; it is exactly the same choice phrased in two different ways. Updated: trying yet again with phrasing of the second choice.

Comments

[http://users.livejournal.com/_lj_sucks_/]

I'm not sure I understand the scenarios as described.

(1) You ask them to choose $300 in a week or $900 in a year.
(2) You give them $50, then ask them to choose $300 in a week or $900 in a year.
(3) You ask them to choose $50 now and $300 in a week, or $50 now and $900 in a year.

So basically, giving them something now has no effect, but offering them the choice of something now does?

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Yes, those are the three scenarios, and only in scenario 3 do people make the long-term choice. So whether or not giving them something now has an effect depends on whether you describe it as a part of both options, or a separate event that has nothing to do with the options.