ciphergoth: (election)
[personal profile] ciphergoth
the latest version of my chart, now with mouseovers:

http://hacks.ciphergoth.org/test-scenario/margin-bargraph/

Remember, this is an imaginary scenario half-way through election night. Here's the graph for the current polling situation, as per electoral-vote.com.

Date: 2008-10-27 04:42 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] elfy.livejournal.com
i talked with friends about the election a few days ago and someone said despite the good results for obama right now, mccain still might win. the reason he said was that when asked now, quite some people might answers they vote for obama, out of fear to seem rassistic and that they later will vote for mccain anyway. he said there even was a word for that, but couldn't remember it. did you hear about that? do you think this risk is there? i really hope not :-/
also, did i show you www.voteforpresident.com?

Date: 2008-10-27 04:51 pm (UTC)
simont: A picture of me in 2016 (Default)
From: [personal profile] simont
he said there even was a word for that, but couldn't remember it.

The Bradley effect.

Date: 2008-10-27 05:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vvalkyri.livejournal.com
dang, now i'm trying to remember where to even look for a link, but someone i was reading recently was seeing the 'bradley effect' as a narrative to explain an otherwise unexplainable 'suddenly the gop gets all these votes nobody knew where they came from.' -- essentially a mask if there are irregularities.

thing is, there are all manner of reasons someone who doesn't want to vote for obama can give for not wanting to vote for obama. he is very different from mccain.

per this commentator, the obama folk aren't really trying to convince mccain voters to switch; they're working on trying to make sure as many obama folk vote as possible.

Date: 2008-10-27 09:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vvalkyri.livejournal.com
ciphergoth found the reference before I did. I'd forgotten that I'd been reading on fivethirtyeight.com

Date: 2008-10-27 09:44 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vvalkyri.livejournal.com
actually that's not the thing I was reading, after all. Hm.

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Paul Crowley

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