Bargain at Intrade

[ciphergoth]

You can buy shares in Sarah Palin being dropped from the GOP ticket at the bargain price of 11.7 as of right now. That means that you can spend $11.7 on such a future, and it will be worth $100 if she's not on the ticket by election day (and $0 otherwise). I reckon it's worth at least twice that, and if I had spare money for gambling I'd buy a few...

Comments

[valkyriekaren.livejournal.com]

Hmm, I'm not sure I understand stats well enough to muck around with actual money on something like that.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Basically it means that if you think the probability of her being dropped is better than 11.7% - even given that that's what the market currently estimates it at - then it's worth buying...