Florida and Michigan: use surveys

[ciphergoth]

Florida are talking about spending $10-$13 million on rather flawed June primaries to replace the discounted early primaries that the DNC have disqualified for being against the rules.

Why don't they just hold a survey? Choose 1000 registered Democrats in each state in some way that can be seen to be random in a fair way, ask them, and choose delegates that way? There's no reason not to expect the same result as a proper primary, except that they can do a much better job of it for far less money.

They won't of course, but that's because of an emotional attachment to everyone getting their ballot than because it will actually make a difference.

Comments

[djm4]

I can see it generating a bias in favour of candidates who wouldn't normally be able to get their voting base out to vote. If you only have an electorate of 1000, and they each know that they're 'representing' a much larger number, there's a fairly strong pressure for those 1000 to all vote. So I'd expect the turnout to be closer to 100% than it would be in a normal primary.

Whether or not you care about that (in fact, possibly you think it's a good thing) is another matter, but I think it could easily affect the result.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Hmm, good point! Yes, I find it hard to see it as a bad thing but it's a difference all the same.

[djm4]

...and in this specific case, it probably would be better than re-running the primary.

[drdoug.livejournal.com]

I find it hard to see it as a bad thing

Surely 'can organise and motivate supporters to actually go and vote' is a pretty important criterion in selecting a presidential candidate? With a survey you get no reliable information about that.

In this specific instance it might not matter, since both candidates have already convincingly shown extraordinary abilities to organise and motivate supporters to actually go and vote. But if we are taking this specific instance, the last thing the DNC wants now is yet more fuel for argument about the selection process, which using an entirely novel method would surely supply.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

At this point any method will fuel arguments; the best you can hope for is something that both campaigns approve of and which they actually have the money to do. At the moment nothing meets all three of these criteria.