For softfruit

[ciphergoth]

Another diagram showing the fortunes of the Lib Dems - I had another go to see if I could show more of what's going on.

Again, the position in the diagram (and the percentages) indicate the share of major party vote that each party gets, and the pie charts indicate the proportion of seats that each gets.

Looking at those polls, the Lib Dems had better hope that Clegg is going to completely turn around the fortunes of the party, or they are facing total irrelevance, which is a long way from the bright hopes entertained after the 2005 elections.

Comments

[green-badger.livejournal.com]

Am I missing something? Why are the numbers of seats different if everyone gets the same % of the vote?

[softfruit.livejournal.com]

SHINY!!!! Thankyou!!

Though of course straight-swing is misleading here: given we got 6 MPs on something like 2% of the vote in the 1950s, the wipeout section of the grid is unlikely to actually play out quite as readily as the simple swing maths suggests. And some would see the ICM poll position as better than the 2005 result given the negotiating power it suggests: enough MPs to be kingmaker rather than facing another 5-year Labour majority government.

Love that midpoint.

[damerell.livejournal.com]

The one ray of joy is that the Tories get boned for not bringing in PR while they had the chance.