Artificial Intelligence and the year 2047

[ciphergoth]

Clarification: By "smart" I mean general smarts: the sort of smarts that allow you to do things like pass a Turing test or solve open problems in nanotechnology. Obviously computers are ahead of humans in narrow domains like playing chess.

NB: your guess as to what will happen should also be one of your guesses about what might happen - thanks! This applies to wriggler, ablueskyboy, thekumquat, redcountess, thehalibutkid, henry_the_cow and cillygirl. If you tick only one option (which is not the last) in the first poll, it means you think it's the only possible outcome.

[Poll #1103617]

And of course, I'm fascinated to know why you make those guesses. In particular - I'm surprised how many people think it's likely that machines as smart as humans might emerge while nothing smarter comes of it, and I'd love to hear more about that position.

Comments

[meico.livejournal.com]

I agree with almost all of what you are saying above but disagree on a few minor, but important points. One thing I think I should point out is that an embodied intelligence doesn't have to necessarily be embodied in the real world (though that would probably be helpful). It can be embodied in a simulated world.

Embodying it there makes so many things much easier. For example, simulated skin that detects touch becomes a simple by product of your physics contact and penetration solver and not some intractable materials engineering problem...

Anyway, I'm working on the cutting edge of reality simulations (games) and have no doubt that they'll soon be good enough to place embodied intelligences into and have them develop real world knowledge and skills (actually some people are already doing exactly this).