Artificial Intelligence and the year 2047
Dec. 10th, 2007 11:25 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ciphergothClarification: By "smart" I mean general smarts: the sort of smarts that allow you to do things like pass a Turing test or solve open problems in nanotechnology. Obviously computers are ahead of humans in narrow domains like playing chess.
NB: your guess as to what will happen should also be one of your guesses about what might happen - thanks! This applies to![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
wriggler, ablueskyboy, thekumquat, redcountess, thehalibutkid, henry_the_cow and cillygirl. If you tick only one option (which is not the last) in the first poll, it means you think it's the only possible outcome.
[Poll #1103617]
And of course, I'm fascinated to know why you make those guesses. In particular - I'm surprised how many people think it's likely that machines as smart as humans might emerge while nothing smarter comes of it, and I'd love to hear more about that position.
NB: your guess as to what will happen should also be one of your guesses about what might happen - thanks! This applies to
wriggler, ablueskyboy, thekumquat, redcountess, thehalibutkid, henry_the_cow and cillygirl. If you tick only one option (which is not the last) in the first poll, it means you think it's the only possible outcome.[Poll #1103617]
And of course, I'm fascinated to know why you make those guesses. In particular - I'm surprised how many people think it's likely that machines as smart as humans might emerge while nothing smarter comes of it, and I'd love to hear more about that position.
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no subject
Date: 2007-12-10 07:38 pm (UTC)I think intelligence is deeply intertwingled with intention, which is even more slippery than intelligence. I know that's a bit biocentric and wibbly...
I see no particular selection pressure driving any rapid advance of artificial intelligence, at least, not in the way that could be related to as intelligence by an ordinary human being. And I think the next 40 years could well revolve around rather more immediate concerns...
Might be wrong, of course. The planned economies (which might very well start to look really quite attractive in the not-too-very-distant-at-all-future), despite their spectacular failures in the recent past, might well do far better under the watchful, benevolent eye of a Silicon Overlord. SOMEONE's going to have to handle all those "Freecycle - XTREME!!!" spreadsheets... with sensitivity and tact...
no subject
Date: 2007-12-10 07:47 pm (UTC)