Artificial Intelligence and the year 2047

[ciphergoth]

Clarification: By "smart" I mean general smarts: the sort of smarts that allow you to do things like pass a Turing test or solve open problems in nanotechnology. Obviously computers are ahead of humans in narrow domains like playing chess.

NB: your guess as to what will happen should also be one of your guesses about what might happen - thanks! This applies to wriggler, ablueskyboy, thekumquat, redcountess, thehalibutkid, henry_the_cow and cillygirl. If you tick only one option (which is not the last) in the first poll, it means you think it's the only possible outcome.

[Poll #1103617]

And of course, I'm fascinated to know why you make those guesses. In particular - I'm surprised how many people think it's likely that machines as smart as humans might emerge while nothing smarter comes of it, and I'd love to hear more about that position.

Comments

[aegidian]

Mu - incomplete definition of 'smarter'.

It's a given that some machines are already vastly better at performing some tasks previously performed by human 'computers' already, and this has transformed the human experience of much of the world.

If by "machines vastly smarter than humans" you mean machines capable of exhibiting characteristics indistinguishable from that of a human intellect and yet surpassing any "smart" human intellect, then I doubt it will happen without several considerable shifts in what is currently considered AI. These shifts may occur, but I suspect they may be as elusive as sustainable fusion power.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Have updated post to indicate the kind of "smarter" I mean.

[djm4]

I think my answer's still the same, although I expect that the most profound changes won't come from machines being 'our' sort of smarter, even though I believe they will be.

[topbit.livejournal.com]

The thing with most AI, is when they've invented something that works, it's not called AI anymore.

40 years ago the idea of talking to your computer was fantasy, now people just call it phone hell as they try to tell the gas board how much fuel they've used. Or they will just call it voice recognition, and finish writing the book they'd started before breaking their arm.

If you wanted to find out what was a good book to buy, you asked a friend - now you can login to Amazon as well, and they will list a dozen you might think about, based on what you've read, or browsed before. It's not AI - it's just a suggestion.