Black box voting

[ciphergoth]

SoCalDem has done a statistical analysis...on several swing states, and EVERY STATE that has Electronic Voting but no paper trails has an unexplained advantage for Bush of around +5% when comparing exit polls to actual results. In EVERY STATE that has paper audit trails on their E-Voting, the exit poll results match the actual results reported within the margin of error.

Comments

[dennyd.livejournal.com]

I read somewhere that exit polls have been a highly reliable predictor of the outcome of the US elections, up until the last two.

[mathie.livejournal.com]

Even if you did vote for Bush, would you admit to it? ;-)

[wechsler.livejournal.com]

Most Bush supporters were extremely proud of their "patriotic action". Very few are likely to be shy about the admission.

[lovingboth]

And there's an argument that they were here, up until 1992. Having been on a campaign that was on the wrong end of a 2% win (exit poll) becoming a 0.1% real loss, I've never been entirely happy with them.

Everyone who's been canvassing knows people lie to you. It's why it's stupid to ask 'can I count on your support' or similar (and ghod knows why the Tories I've seen in action still seem to do so!) Doubly so when there's an element of shame in admitting your vote.

If you went and asked Americans how they voted now, you'd find that on the surface Bush is missing votes in many places all across the 'Jesusland' bits, because people who didn't, in fact, vote for him will tell you - now he's won - that they did. Equally, in more Democratic places, you'll find more Kerry voters than actually did so.

I'd be very interested to see if the exit pollers this time asked people how they voted in 2000.

[vvalkyri.livejournal.com]

Which also brings us to a conversation about why on earth you find people who will vote for someone because he thinks that person will win, rather than because he wants that person. Don't get that one at all.