...or perhaps not buying a house after all

[ciphergoth]

...at least for a while.

Met up with babysimon at BU last night. He made a *very* persuasive case that now is not a good time to buy. Various folk made the opposite case, but his was backed up with detailed quantative historical data. I'm sore about it, but I'm convinced. It's sad but at least it means I'll be able to get a rather better property for the same money when the crash comes.

Just spoke to an investment advisor, who said if I was only investing for a year or so and then hoping to buy property, I should put my deposit in bonds. I'll also of course put the maximum I can into an ISA. It'll keep 'till I need it.

So I guess I'm looking to rent once again... but we're not in a hurry.

Comments

Re: my turn :o)

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

I promise to shut up now.

Please don't feel obliged - this is one of the most important decisions of my life, and I really value the work everyone's putting into informing that decision.

Re: my turn :o)

[ajva.livejournal.com]

Well, the problem for me is that I can't time the market, and although I wouldn't buy now myself, I don't want to risk fucking up your plans by being too bearish.

There is a famous quotation which is attributed to John Maynard Keynes which goes:

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

By any measure, the London property market is seriously overvalued, and although I think it's going to crash, I cannot guarantee that I am correct that it will happen soon. I would just point out that, if interest rates do go up to 4.25% next month or in May, then that will be the highest base rates have been since October 2001.

This would mean, for example, that people coming out of 2-year fixed rate deals are less likely to be able to get a cheaper remortgage than they have been for the past 3 years.