ObDisclaimer: I'm a LibDem party member, though not an active one. I don't claim to know the party's position and I certainly don't speak for it.
It's important to bear in mind that the percentage of the vote that we get is going to be an important factor in making the argument for electoral reform. The scenario that, shortly after the first leaders' debate looked not beyond the realms of possibility, of us coming first in popular vote yet (almost inevitably) last in terms of Commons representation, were it to come to pass would be a powerful argument indeed for electoral reform. Coming second in popular vote is still not beyond the realms of possibility (although the last few days' polls certainly aren't with us there) and that would still be powerful, I think.
I think there's almost certainly a significant consituency of natural LibDem supporters who don't vote for us because they ‘know’ that we have no chance of winning; I get the impression the occasional ‘would you vote LibDem if you thought they had a real chance of winning?’ question in polls supports this hypothesis—and for that reason, too, I'm disinclined to regard any suggestion that our natural supporters should vote for another party to be constructive to the cause.
But OTOH I can't fault the logic that a Tory government would be the death of probably the best opportunity for electoral reform within our lifetimes. I'm not sure a Tory majority is particularly likely, but a workable Tory minority government, supported by the UUP, if they have any electoral success, or maybe the DUP? Yes, it's a danger.
Of course, I wish we had a voting system which didn't require us to make decisions like these. (Actually, I don't really like any of the voting systems that are plausibly on offer -- even traditional STV has too many flaws -- but it's an order of magnitude better than what we've got.)
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2010-05-05 10:04 pm (UTC)ObDisclaimer: I'm a LibDem party member, though not an active one. I don't claim to know the party's position and I certainly don't speak for it.
It's important to bear in mind that the percentage of the vote that we get is going to be an important factor in making the argument for electoral reform. The scenario that, shortly after the first leaders' debate looked not beyond the realms of possibility, of us coming first in popular vote yet (almost inevitably) last in terms of Commons representation, were it to come to pass would be a powerful argument indeed for electoral reform. Coming second in popular vote is still not beyond the realms of possibility (although the last few days' polls certainly aren't with us there) and that would still be powerful, I think.
I think there's almost certainly a significant consituency of natural LibDem supporters who don't vote for us because they ‘know’ that we have no chance of winning; I get the impression the occasional ‘would you vote LibDem if you thought they had a real chance of winning?’ question in polls supports this hypothesis—and for that reason, too, I'm disinclined to regard any suggestion that our natural supporters should vote for another party to be constructive to the cause.
But OTOH I can't fault the logic that a Tory government would be the death of probably the best opportunity for electoral reform within our lifetimes. I'm not sure a Tory majority is particularly likely, but a workable Tory minority government, supported by the UUP, if they have any electoral success, or maybe the DUP? Yes, it's a danger.
Of course, I wish we had a voting system which didn't require us to make decisions like these. (Actually, I don't really like any of the voting systems that are plausibly on offer -- even traditional STV has too many flaws -- but it's an order of magnitude better than what we've got.)
-roy