I don't entirely disagree, so take these as quibbles:
What's considered a safe seat, and what swing is needed to make it unsafe, is based on the vote in the last election. The better consequences to me of voting Lib Dem is that at the next election, they'll have a bigger base to start from, and be a more credible force. That's a big part of how we got to where we are today.
If you view the timescales of your consequences differently, that's fine by me. But it's not a simple as solely considering the consequences at this election.
Labour had 13 years to change the voting system, and didn't. I would be (pleasantly) surprised if anything short of a Lib Dem majority brought about electoral reform, and am not expecting to see it in the next term of government. Labour and the Conservatives will always have enough MPs to block it, and quite probably will.
Oh, and BetFair really just tells you what people are betting on. It took me £20 to move the Lib Dems (briefly) from fourth to first in Poplar and Limehouse (if Jonathan wins I'm going to do rather well out of it ;-). I don't have the resources to throw at Betfair to make that stick, but Labour and especially the Tories do (wouldn't show up on election expenses, either). I think you're probably correct that the only party who might get a majority is the Tories, but Betfair isn't the evidence you need for that IMO.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2010-05-05 09:49 pm (UTC)What's considered a safe seat, and what swing is needed to make it unsafe, is based on the vote in the last election. The better consequences to me of voting Lib Dem is that at the next election, they'll have a bigger base to start from, and be a more credible force. That's a big part of how we got to where we are today.
If you view the timescales of your consequences differently, that's fine by me. But it's not a simple as solely considering the consequences at this election.
Labour had 13 years to change the voting system, and didn't. I would be (pleasantly) surprised if anything short of a Lib Dem majority brought about electoral reform, and am not expecting to see it in the next term of government. Labour and the Conservatives will always have enough MPs to block it, and quite probably will.
Oh, and BetFair really just tells you what people are betting on. It took me £20 to move the Lib Dems (briefly) from fourth to first in Poplar and Limehouse (if Jonathan wins I'm going to do rather well out of it ;-). I don't have the resources to throw at Betfair to make that stick, but Labour and especially the Tories do (wouldn't show up on election expenses, either). I think you're probably correct that the only party who might get a majority is the Tories, but Betfair isn't the evidence you need for that IMO.