ciphergoth: (Default)
[personal profile] ciphergoth
I may not reply to everything in that 159-comment thread but thanks to everyone who participated. I hope people don't mind if I carry on asking for your help in thinking about this. I might post articles on specific areas people raised, but first I thought to ask this: my Google-fu may be failing me. I'd appreciate any links anyone can find to good articles arguing against signing up for cryonics, or pointing out flaws in arguments made for cryosuspension. I don't mean South Park, thanks :-) I'm looking for something that really intends to be persuasive.

thanks again!

Update: here's some I've found If you find any of these articles at all convincing, let me know and I'll point out the problems with them. Update: while I am definitely interested in continuing to read your arguments, I'm really really keen to know about anyone anywhere on the Internet who seems well-informed on the subject and writes arguing against it. Such people seem to be strikingly few and far between, especially on the specific question of the plausibility of recovery. There's a hypothesis here on why that might be, but I'm not sure it's enough to wholly account for it.
Page 1 of 3 << [1] [2] [3] >>

Date: 2010-01-21 11:21 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] uberredfraggle.livejournal.com
I don't know if this is of any use to you but this is about part cryo suspension and how they had to use other methods to prevent brain damage.

http://sciencelinks.jp/j-east/article/200011/000020001100A0260262.php

Still googling for other stuff. :)

Date: 2010-01-21 11:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
I'm not an expert in these fields at all, which is why I'm glad people are discussing this with me. I'm afraid I don't see the implications for cryonics, could you spell it out for me?

Date: 2010-01-21 11:35 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] uberredfraggle.livejournal.com
One of my main thoughts is the risk of brain damage. If this patient was incredibly high risk brain damage during this operation surely a complete body suspended long term would be at even higher risk?

I know less than you so I'm just poking around.

Just watching a youtube video on the pros and cons to see if there is anything useful in there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MkCBhEwJNw

Date: 2010-01-21 11:37 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ajva.livejournal.com
I must confess I have been rather enjoying today the thought of coming to, much like from an epileptic fit, spaced and confused, trying to grasp memories that seem to slip too easily from my grasp, to see the friendly, near-euphoric face of [livejournal.com profile] ciphergoth looking over me, and hearing:

"Anne! Welcome to 2563! You'll never guess how quantum mechanics worked out! That's old hat these days!"

Date: 2010-01-21 11:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
I really would be absolutely unspeakably euphoric to see you.

Date: 2010-01-21 11:41 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] uberredfraggle.livejournal.com
One point in this video that comes up was in a study of 9 embryos 4 didn't survive. Obviously doing this on embryos and fully grown humans is completely different but I thought it was an interesting point.

Googling 'cryo suspension pros cons' came up with a few results. :)

Date: 2010-01-21 11:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
Googling 'cryo suspension pros cons' came up with a few results. :)

Couldn't find any good ones in that list, any you'd like to draw my attention to?

Date: 2010-01-21 11:45 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] uberredfraggle.livejournal.com
Well there is the video. I just skim read them i'm afraid. I'm still watching the video now as it's slow to load.

Are there any specific areas of the cons you want to read about. I've goggled for the brain damage side but are there specific points other brought up?

Date: 2010-01-21 11:47 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ajva.livejournal.com
"Unfortunately the first time anchor wasn't put down until 2115, but I already met Holly Draycott's great-granddaughter, and she's the spit of K, and apparently was a hugely successful author back in the day. Given you're an Early Adopter, we've been given a special permit to go back, if you like - just the once - it's bloody expensive. Honestly, it's almost like the 21st century back in the 22nd. Almost like home..."

I mean, the possibilities are endless, eh? ;o)

Date: 2010-01-21 11:57 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ajva.livejournal.com
Actually, I'd freeze myself for 500 years just to get a chance at a full explanation of quantum entanglement. :o) I'm sure they'll have worked it out by then.

Date: 2010-01-22 12:00 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] damerell.livejournal.com
Worse if some seemingly trivial matter from the 20th century has got out of proportion. "Oh wise one from the past, is it boots then corset, or corset then boots? Millions have died in the great Corset War. And what is a corset, anyway?"

Date: 2010-01-22 12:06 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] damerell.livejournal.com
Argh, not the Pascal's Wager analogy, that's obviously bogus. The trouble with Pascal's Wager is that you _don't_ in fact know that the possible outcomes are oblivion or eternal bliss. But you can speculate quite sensibly about what a future that might revive corpsicles might be like - you might be wrong, but you certainly have _some_ information.

I think a much more cognent objection is the one that there are probably better ways to extend your life with $30,000.

Date: 2010-01-22 12:10 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ajva.livejournal.com
I'm not taking the piss, btw - I am actually thinking about it.

Date: 2010-01-22 02:52 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] http://users.livejournal.com/_lj_sucks_/
I recommend listening to This American Life episode 354, Mistakes Were Made (http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1291).

Also, Penn and Teller's "Bullshit", the episode on cryonics is worth watching.

Date: 2010-01-22 03:26 am (UTC)
ext_16733: (Default)
From: [identity profile] akicif.livejournal.com
Other way round: by its very premises Pascal's Wager is such that the only outcomes are Heaven, Hell or oblivion.

But by speculating about what life as a revived corpsicle would be like one falls into the Underpants Gnome fallacy and palms the card with the route between here and there.

You are quite right to say there are more productive ways to spend the money.

Date: 2010-01-22 05:02 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] damerell.livejournal.com
The point is that those premises are fatuous. Either a very specific god exists or no god at all? Says who?

I don't think, conversely, it's at all unreasonable to speculate about what future societies with a high level of medical technology would be like. In particular, as I mentioned in t'other post, it's a somewhat contrived (not impossible, but unlikely) scenario where death isn't still an option if you don't like it.

Date: 2010-01-22 07:02 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] elsmi.livejournal.com
That "Why we'll never be downloaded" article is curious. "I want to give two reasons that are totally unlike Searle's Chinese Room argument, because that argument sucks. Argument 1: Searle!"

Date: 2010-01-22 08:09 am (UTC)
andrewducker: (Default)
From: [personal profile] andrewducker
That last one says some odd things:
"The implicit idea of the Turing Test is that the mind is a program and a program can be described purely in terms of its input-output behavior."
strikes me as particularly barking.

Date: 2010-01-22 08:24 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
I know, but it's the best I can find. Given that pretty much everyone is convinced that it's obviously crazy, it's odd that there isn't a P Z Myers out there, meticulously detailing all the false claims and such of the cryonics world.

Date: 2010-01-22 09:35 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] emarkienna.livejournal.com
I don't think the point for everyone is simply that they want to go to the future in the hopes that life is much better (although that would be a nice added bonus), but to live for longer, whatever things may be like.

It's possible that an authoritarian world or nuclear holocaust could happen in our lifetimes, but I'd still rather stay alive to see, and take my chances, rather than killing myself now just in case.

I think the only grounds Pascal's Wager is comparable if is someone was making the argument of "I don't care how unlikely it is; as long as the chance is non-zero, it's worth making the bet", because one could just as well spend the money on voodoo spells. But if one believes cryonics has a better chance of success, that doesn't apply. We have no way of knowing if one kind of God is more likely than another kind of God, but I think we can make better guesses about whether something like this might have a chance of working.

Date: 2010-01-22 10:14 am (UTC)
djm4: (Default)
From: [personal profile] djm4
Well, there's 'makes provably incorrect claims' crazy, and there's 'requires the invention of Wonderflonium' crazy. To the extent that I think cryonics is crazy at all, I think it's the second sort of crazy. It has a tendency to use arguments of the form: 'this requires technology that we don't know how to make yet. But 100 years ago, we didn't know how to make an iPhone (on many, many, levels). So in 100 years, we may know how to make the technolgy we need.' It's much harder to argue against that sort of crazy, which is what I was trying to get at with my 'not even wrong' and 'to get from X to Y requires [tech]' reply yesterday, although I should probably have used 'Wonderflonium' rather than 'magic pixie dust'.

That said, I don't think cryonics is crazy enough that you shouldn't try it if you think the Wonderflonium is plausible, or, at least, not totally impossible. I have other reasons for not wanting to extend my life which most certainly don't apply to you. The image of you and [livejournal.com profile] ajva waking up together in the future in the way you talk about above is certainly an appealing one, and I hope it comes to pass.

Date: 2010-01-22 10:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
Cryonics organisations make lots of claims about why cryonics might be a good bet (one example: Scientific Justification of Cryonics Practice, Ben Best pdf) which sound impressive to the non-expert. If these claims are rubbish, it's a shame no-one's spending any time debunking them.

Date: 2010-01-22 11:10 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com
BTW just to understand your position here - you think it's very plausible that cryo patients are not information-theoretically dead, but that even if we avoid early thawing or global catastrophe, it's very unlikely that the technology to return them to life will ever exist?

Date: 2010-01-22 11:38 am (UTC)
djm4: (Default)
From: [personal profile] djm4
Not really. I'm not quite sure how you get that from what I said, and I think you may in any case be confusing me with someone who thinks that cryonics is vanishingly unlikely ever to work (I could understand that, but I'm more in the camp of 'I do not have enough information to make an informed guess'). But breaking it down:

Are cryo patients information-theoretically dead? Probably, as the procedure stands at the moment, although I wouldn't be too shocked to find that they weren't. I can see easily-imagined extrapolations of the procedure (better vitrification techniques to reduce tissue damage; less time between 'death' and vitrification; possibly even vitrification while still 'alive') that make information-theory death less likely. I do think that this offers a better chance of getting back the original 'consciousness' than any currently conceivable method of brain scan, followed by brain rebuild. I'm not sure I'd go anywhere near 'very plausible' without a lot more data, including but not limited to successful vitrification and revival of something like a cat or a dog. (Before you refer me to page 11 of that PDF you linked to, I'm not saying it's 'not science' with out that, just that I don't think it's 'very plausible' without that.)

Is it very unlikely that the technology to return them to life will ever exist? I haven't a clue. I can debunk a specific claim such as 'Transmission Electron Microscopy offers a likely method for mapping a complete brain', but I can't debunk a claim like 'in the next 100 years, we will invent a form of microscopy that can scan the complete brain'. It's too far from what existing technology can do for it to be reasonable to say 'plausible' or 'busted'. The route to it navigates Ant Country through a set of technological developments that rely on each other and we can't even begin to predict beyond the first few steps.
Page 1 of 3 << [1] [2] [3] >>

Profile

ciphergoth: (Default)
Paul Crowley

January 2025

S M T W T F S
   1234
5678 91011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 

Most Popular Tags

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags
Page generated Apr. 30th, 2026 09:07 pm
Powered by Dreamwidth Studios