Reasons to be cheerful

[ciphergoth]

Two recent polls have Obama ahead in Florida by four to five points. The polls currently show Obama having a 74 vote lead in the Electoral College. My lovely graphs are starting to keel over, because all the lines are bunching up at the top: they currently show that Obama would have a 55-75% chance of victory even if he were to lose three percentage points against McCain nationally; on current form they show an 88-99% chance of victory.

This November we could be looking at total meltdown of the Republican party, with wipeouts not only in the Presidential elections but in the House and the Senate too. The Dems could have a sufficient majority to kill off the ridiculous procedural crap the GOP keep pulling. Let's just hope they find enough spine to use it.

Updated: Of course, this is before the coming advertising blitz has its effect. John McCain has announced that he's going to join the Federal "matched funds" programme, which means that he accepts a donation cap of $84.1M in return for a matching $84.1M from the Federal purse, giving him about $170M to spend on advertising in the coming months. This programme has been in place since 1972 and all Presidential candidates have accepted the matching funds in that time.

Except for Barack Obama, who announced yesterday that he will not be taking part in the scheme. This is because the Obama camp anticipate raising up to $500M from donations, largely small donations made online. In other words, starting from a seemingly unassailable lead in the polls, Obama will outspend his rival 3:1.

Oh, and just in case that's not enough, the Democrats are also going to sue John McCain for violation of campaign finance rules he signed into law.

Yee-har!

Comments

[lovelybug.livejournal.com]

*cheers*

[purplerabbits.livejournal.com]

"This November we could be looking at total meltdown of the Republican party"

Shhh

Don'tsaythingslikethatthegremlinswillhearyou

*holds thumbs*

[gothbabe.livejournal.com]

Yay! Thanks for reporting this. Alexa : )

[weegoddess.livejournal.com]

Ok, this post made my day for too many reasons to count. Not the least of which is that you sound like so much of my US tribe.

::cheers you on::

[http://users.livejournal.com/_nicolai_/]

You seem to think that candidates spending enormous amounts of money to win an election is a good thing.

[tranibri.livejournal.com]

There is a lot that could potential happen in the coming months to put a different slant on things.

I would question Obamas funbding from small donations, Americans like everyone else are feeling the ecnomic pinch, more so cause there are further into the cycle. Call me cynical but i am sure many larger interested parties have made donations too.

Sorry Obama doesn't fill me with any hope, if he has got this far......
Another charasmatic poltician promising change just like one Mr T Blair. If there was any change for the better well i did not see it. Even in 1997 when Labout first got in the first thing they did was cut benefits for single parents.

A two party political system eveitably mean that both sides take on the mantle of their opposities. They are both chasing the few swing voter and can ignore there established supporters After all who the gonna vote for the othere guys ?

Mind you expect proably the most vicious campaign we have ever seen in the states...some entertianment at least.

Funding is one thing but i think we might be looking at the wrong thing.
Not too informmed about media in the states but look at it this way. No politcal pary in britian pays for the Sun's support. Well no cash changes hands anyway......