to me after the votes are cast a swingometer should highlight that seat X would have changed hands but for local factors like incumbency.
Well, the aim should surely to predict an overall outcome, which would mean assuming an overall incumbency effect - in any given seat the question would be whether there's more or less incumbency than average, or indeed a negative effect if the voters have taken against their member.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2007-12-31 01:51 pm (UTC)Well, the aim should surely to predict an overall outcome, which would mean assuming an overall incumbency effect - in any given seat the question would be whether there's more or less incumbency than average, or indeed a negative effect if the voters have taken against their member.
So what method is actually being used, then?