The asymmetries are based on the 2005 result; the predictions all are straight 3-way swings, so don't factor in the incumbency factors built up from 2005 to (next GE). Those are hell to calculate anyhow, especially given the boundary changes and unpredictability of which PPCs will be incumbents in areas of the new seats. Arguably they're not the role of a swingometer anyhow - to me after the votes are cast a swingometer should highlight that seat X would have changed hands but for local factors like incumbency.
I'm not sure if he's taking the 2005 results "as they were" or a projection of them onto the new constituencies that the next GE will be fought on, which IIRC shift about ten seats net from Lab to Con.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2007-12-31 01:35 pm (UTC)I'm not sure if he's taking the 2005 results "as they were" or a projection of them onto the new constituencies that the next GE will be fought on, which IIRC shift about ten seats net from Lab to Con.