Re: Nice

Date: 2007-01-09 05:11 pm (UTC)
it was indeed the electoral college votes, a distraction from my part at the time I wrote the post.

Oh, I am not saying it is better (for starters, it's not a precise graph because there wouldn't be a fixed line to compare against), I am just throwing another possibly interesting view of the data.

What I meant by influence of change is that, since electoral votes are binary, how much a change would affect the election (either during counting or with respect to predictions) depends on two things: the closest it is to 0 and the number of electoral votes affected, isn't it? Or am I just confusing things at the moment?

If that's the case, if you order them along the x-axis according to their margin, the width of the rectangle would illustrate that influence.

Still, [livejournal.com profile] ciphergoth's suggestion is a much simpler view targeted at who's winning and how close is the race and, thus, better. This other suggestion is more targeted to how likely is there to be a big or small shift, though there are better ways of plotting that.
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Paul Crowley

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