The mid-terms

[ciphergoth]

I cannot take the damn tension.

All but two of the states with Senate races this year have called the results. The remaining two seats are still too close to call, but the Democrats are winning by very slim margins in both. If the Democrats with both of them, they control the Senate; if the Republicans win even one, they get the Senate since they control the casting vote. The party that wins the Senate gets to chair the committees that write the legislation.

Virginia looks to be in the bag; even though the margin is only 0.33%, nearly all the votes are in, and it would take an unprecedented upset for the remaining votes to change the outcome. There will be a recount, but there's no reason to think it will change the result.

In Montana, on the other hand, the margin is only 0.5% and 9% of precincts have yet to report. The Republicans have been gaining on the Democrats for quite a while; they don't need to gain much more in this final sprint to win it. I keep reloading Montana instead of working. Aargh!

Oh well, the House of Representatives is in the bag for the Democrats for the first time in twelve years either way. But both houses would be nice.

Update: More precincts have reported in Montana, and the margin has shrunk to 0.41% with 4% yet to report. However, there is good news; before, the GOP needed to win just 6% more of the remaining votes to take the seat; that's now gone up to 0.41% / 4% = 10% (assuming remaining votes is roughly proportional to remaining precincts). In Virginia the "upset margin" is 0.33% / 1% = 33%, which is why I'm more confident there.

Update: Montana Dem lead is still 0.41% with all but 1% of precincts reporting; starting to look like that's in the bag too.

Comments

[kimkali.livejournal.com]

But both houses would be nice
Yes. Yes it would :D

[olethros.livejournal.com]

Gotta say, I'd be happy with one house each. I have the idea that the US system works best when both sides [are forced to] work together. The biggest problem in the US lately, to my mind, has been the demonisation of each side by the other - it's become very unpleasantly entrenched.

If the 2008 Presidential election goes the way of the Democrats, I think it'd be very healthy to have the White House and the House of Representatives being Democrat controlled, with Republicans still in the Senate. But I'm far less qualified to comment on this than on matters in the British Isles.

election

[webcowgirl.livejournal.com]

Jesus, 96% and only a 1500 difference, I could pee in my pants. There will definitely be a recount.

[bileandvitriol.livejournal.com]

Don't worry about it. A 50-48-2 Senate means that Cheney can't avoid the limelight since he has to vote to tiebreak, and so shooter jokes will continue on Leno, and Halliburton/KBR corruption and fraud investigations will get more horsepower because of the VP's visibility.

The next two years are going to be fairly banal anyway. With Bush on the way out, but no Democratic supermajority to override his veto, there has to be some bipartisanship regardless of the Senate outcome. Besides, if Iraq is still a festering sore in 2008 (and can you imagine that it won't be?) then Senate dominance with its concomitant majority in the Foreign Relations committee and the putative guidance of the direction of foreign policy may be a vulnerability come the next election. Impeachment requires two-thirds of the Senate, so unless there's a smoking gun out there somewhere, all such fulminations are just sound and fury...

[shadowdaddy.livejournal.com]

I'm largely inclined to agree with you - the whole checks and balances thing does work, and the full Republican control has really done awful things for the balance of power - but I have to say that I find a strong retaliatory desire to have just a couple years of Democrat-led congressional investigations into the Bush white house. We can start all clean-slate and bipartisan in 2008, but I want to see some spankings.

Of course, there's good odds the Dems will think they're claiming the moral high ground by not starting a witch hunt, but we can hope not.

[skibbley.livejournal.com]

Virginia 05 slate is almost poetic: Goode Weed Oddo

[narnee.livejournal.com]

The party that wins the Senate gets to chair the committees that write the legislation.

The House also has committees which write legislation.

Can you explain how you figured out the upset margins? As you know, maths is Greek to me, but I'd like to try to understand.

VA

[ablueskyboy.livejournal.com]

Unfortunately, they passed that damned marriage amendment, and so did CO, which, for a "red state" *was* accomodating, much more than VA ever is. Typical VA politics: they always have to finger someone to pee on.

Maybe I should find somwhere else to live.

[meltroid.livejournal.com]

AP have called Virginia for the Democrats although it's not official yet. The question now is whether or not it's close enough for a recount.

Personally I've got no party affiliation in the UK let alone the US. I'm just happy with anything that causes problems for Dubbya.

[shevek.livejournal.com]

Since I am currently in the US:

The feeling was that the democrats winning both houses would not be a good thing, as they would then take the blame for Bush. It would have been better for them to take one house now and the other next time.

Oh well.