Go to the source for information about HIV and fellatio

The BBC news report adjectivemarcus quoted about HIV and fellatio is actually a bit misleading.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/health/newsid_1422000/1422582.stm

and note that when they say "oral sex", they mean "cocksucking". Go to the source: the press release from which they drew the article:

http://www.phls.co.uk/news/pressreleases/01pr/010705pr.htm

and find that where the BBC say "up to 8%", the press release says "3-8%" of infections.

Note also that this does not mean that you have a 3-8% chance of getting the virus every time you suck cock! The 3-8% figure is their estimate of the proportion of infections that come from fellatio rather than more common sources such as fucking without a condom or IV drug use with shared needles. That figure tells you very little indeed about how risky fellatio is, except to say that the risk isn't zero.

Later this week they'll be publishing more of the report on their website. Hopefully they'll give enough information for us to make an informed choice about the risks we take...

I'd just like to add one important postscript:

waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

Personality disorder

http://www.4degreez.com/misc/personality_disorder_test.mv

Paranoid: Low
Schizoid: Low
Schizotypal: Low
Antisocial: Low
Borderline: Low
Histrionic: High
Narcissistic: Moderate
Avoidant: Low
Dependent: Low
Obsessive-Compulsive: Low
( Interpretation follows )

Help with Bayes Theorem sought...

D'oh! I worked it out. Sorry for wasting the time of anyone who thought about this.
( Stupid error follows )

Saving your life with Bayes Theorem

The report I quoted earlier says that 3-8% of new HIV cases among gay men are due to transmission through fellatio. So, how risky is fellatio? It depends on what proportion of men who have sex with men are engaging in high risk activities. We can analyse this with standard tools from probability theory, along with a bunch of simplifying assumptions. ( Probability theory is nice and fun and not scary. )

Ever fallen in love...

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