Paul Crowley (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
ciphergoth) wrote2010-05-05 10:19 pm
ciphergoth) wrote2010-05-05 10:19 pm
Help abolish tactical voting: vote tactically tomorrow to keep the Tories out
Please vote tactically to keep the Tories out.
This is what I want to say to everyone before you vote tomorrow, but it's aimed especially at Liberal Democrat supporters in Lab/Con marginal seats. I'm not a Liberal Democrat but I would like you to do as well as possible tomorrow because there's an awful lot of your agenda I want heard - especially voting reform.
Looking at the betting odds, it's pretty clear that the only plausible outcomes are a hung parliament or a Tory majority; there's no chance of a Labour majority.
In the event of a hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats will likely wield many votes and have considerable power to advance their agenda, power they've never had before. In particular, there's every chance they'll finally be able to force through the voting reform we've all waited for for so long; voting reform that will mean that the party finally gets the voice that its popular support would warrant. What we're calling a Liberal Democrat "moment" could be a lasting Liberal Democrat revolution.
In the event of a Tory majority, even a slim one, exactly the opposite will happen. Just like George W Bush in 2000, they're singing a centrist song now, but will rule to their own agenda once they have power. They won't reform voting - their 10% seat cut is no reform and could unbalance things further.
There hasn't been a hung parliament for (ISTR) 35 years, so opportunities like this don't come often. Of course plugging hard at length is an important part of winning, but so is seizing opportunities to break barriers that you might not get another chance to break for a very long time. And that means voting Labour where they are the only candidate who can beat the Tory.
I'm talking here about the consequences of your vote. There's a temptation to choose your vote based on whether you'll enjoy telling people about it. I know not everyone feels this way, but to me one action is better than another if it brings about better consequences. I'm asking you to choose yours on the basis of what might actually happen as a result. We can do away with the ridiculous problem with our voting system that means I have to ask you this. But it means voting whatever way you need to vote tomorrow to prevent a Tory majority.
Guardian guide to tactical voting
This is what I want to say to everyone before you vote tomorrow, but it's aimed especially at Liberal Democrat supporters in Lab/Con marginal seats. I'm not a Liberal Democrat but I would like you to do as well as possible tomorrow because there's an awful lot of your agenda I want heard - especially voting reform.
Looking at the betting odds, it's pretty clear that the only plausible outcomes are a hung parliament or a Tory majority; there's no chance of a Labour majority.
In the event of a hung parliament, the Liberal Democrats will likely wield many votes and have considerable power to advance their agenda, power they've never had before. In particular, there's every chance they'll finally be able to force through the voting reform we've all waited for for so long; voting reform that will mean that the party finally gets the voice that its popular support would warrant. What we're calling a Liberal Democrat "moment" could be a lasting Liberal Democrat revolution.
In the event of a Tory majority, even a slim one, exactly the opposite will happen. Just like George W Bush in 2000, they're singing a centrist song now, but will rule to their own agenda once they have power. They won't reform voting - their 10% seat cut is no reform and could unbalance things further.
There hasn't been a hung parliament for (ISTR) 35 years, so opportunities like this don't come often. Of course plugging hard at length is an important part of winning, but so is seizing opportunities to break barriers that you might not get another chance to break for a very long time. And that means voting Labour where they are the only candidate who can beat the Tory.
I'm talking here about the consequences of your vote. There's a temptation to choose your vote based on whether you'll enjoy telling people about it. I know not everyone feels this way, but to me one action is better than another if it brings about better consequences. I'm asking you to choose yours on the basis of what might actually happen as a result. We can do away with the ridiculous problem with our voting system that means I have to ask you this. But it means voting whatever way you need to vote tomorrow to prevent a Tory majority.
Guardian guide to tactical voting
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What's considered a safe seat, and what swing is needed to make it unsafe, is based on the vote in the last election. The better consequences to me of voting Lib Dem is that at the next election, they'll have a bigger base to start from, and be a more credible force. That's a big part of how we got to where we are today.
If you view the timescales of your consequences differently, that's fine by me. But it's not a simple as solely considering the consequences at this election.
Labour had 13 years to change the voting system, and didn't. I would be (pleasantly) surprised if anything short of a Lib Dem majority brought about electoral reform, and am not expecting to see it in the next term of government. Labour and the Conservatives will always have enough MPs to block it, and quite probably will.
Oh, and BetFair really just tells you what people are betting on. It took me £20 to move the Lib Dems (briefly) from fourth to first in Poplar and Limehouse (if Jonathan wins I'm going to do rather well out of it ;-). I don't have the resources to throw at Betfair to make that stick, but Labour and especially the Tories do (wouldn't show up on election expenses, either). I think you're probably correct that the only party who might get a majority is the Tories, but Betfair isn't the evidence you need for that IMO.
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I'm not solely considering the next election. Voting reform will affect all future elections; it's worth seizing this chance.
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(And not that it really matters, but the last hung parliament was 1996-1997, when Major led a minority Tory Government - although 35 years is about right if you mean that 1974 was the last one that immediately followed a general election).
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ObDisclaimer: I'm a LibDem party member, though not an active one. I don't claim to know the party's position and I certainly don't speak for it.
It's important to bear in mind that the percentage of the vote that we get is going to be an important factor in making the argument for electoral reform. The scenario that, shortly after the first leaders' debate looked not beyond the realms of possibility, of us coming first in popular vote yet (almost inevitably) last in terms of Commons representation, were it to come to pass would be a powerful argument indeed for electoral reform. Coming second in popular vote is still not beyond the realms of possibility (although the last few days' polls certainly aren't with us there) and that would still be powerful, I think.
I think there's almost certainly a significant consituency of natural LibDem supporters who don't vote for us because they ‘know’ that we have no chance of winning; I get the impression the occasional ‘would you vote LibDem if you thought they had a real chance of winning?’ question in polls supports this hypothesis—and for that reason, too, I'm disinclined to regard any suggestion that our natural supporters should vote for another party to be constructive to the cause.
But OTOH I can't fault the logic that a Tory government would be the death of probably the best opportunity for electoral reform within our lifetimes. I'm not sure a Tory majority is particularly likely, but a workable Tory minority government, supported by the UUP, if they have any electoral success, or maybe the DUP? Yes, it's a danger.
Of course, I wish we had a voting system which didn't require us to make decisions like these. (Actually, I don't really like any of the voting systems that are plausibly on offer -- even traditional STV has too many flaws -- but it's an order of magnitude better than what we've got.)
-roy
If your vote doesn't matter...
Two hundred quid's an extra leaflet drop, or a minibus and driver to get out the housebound and the elderly on polling day: another fifty votes. A well-spent thousand pounds can swing a marginal constituency.
A bit late now, but file it away for future reference.
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I don't think you've correctly judged my levels of optimism there, by the way, I don't think he's a shoe-in, but I think it's a fairly close four-way marginal and that he has a way better than 1/44 chance of winning. (And that's likely to be very hard to tell from the result tomorrow, as we won't be able to examine all the parallel universes where a few small changes led to a different vote share for everyone).
Re: If your vote doesn't matter...
Since I spent this election campaign rather poor, it didn't arise :-)
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If I get time, I'll try to make it clearer that I don't say this out of some sort of generosity towards the LDs, but as a means to advance those parts of my agenda that overlap with the LD agenda, like voting reform. Obviously I won't necessarily take the LD leadership's word for it on what will serve those goals.
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Obviously the odds for the overall result - with more people betting on it - are going to be harder to affect by putting money on them, but I still wouldn't rely on them too much.
I put a lot more faith in markets where there is more money than where there is less - I've even cautioned about this on Twitter when talking about Poplar and Limehouse.
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Re: If your vote doesn't matter...
Re: If your vote doesn't matter...
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MTE.
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One cost of not voting Labour is that it makes a Tory win in that seat that much more likely. One cost of voting Labour is that as you indicate you might not feel good about it. How do you prioritize these costs?
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Re: If your vote doesn't matter...
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Re: If your vote doesn't matter...
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If the Tories get in, it'll be because of the broken electoral system. The only way to fix the problem, is to fix the broken electoral system. The same broken electoral system that kept the Tories in power for decades even as their vote dwindled.
Labour would rather see 20 years of Tory misrule than fix the electoral system and consequently not get as much power themselves when it's "their turn". Fuck them. The only solution is electoral reform, and there's only one way to vote that will get that to happen.
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That's very true. The fact is, there's so much incentive for any party in power not to change the system, because once one gets into power, one is more likely to get into power again. Self-interest triumphs.
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Re: If your vote doesn't matter...
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No one knows how or if any of this machinery will work in a three-horse race. I think there's a fair chance that this will be one of those elections where all the polsters (including the exit polls) get it absolutely dreadfully wrong, requiring new empirical methodological fudges in future polling (think 1992). Of course, I have no idea in which direction they will be wrong.
-roy
Re: If your vote doesn't matter...
Re: If your vote doesn't matter...
Re: If your vote doesn't matter...
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Yes, and with only one throw of the dice, the chances are still that I won't win, even if my expected winnings are mathematically good.
In any case, just to be clear, I was specifically betting on this to see how much even a small amount could change the odds. (Had I won - which I clearly haven't - I'd have donated the proceeds to BiCon's helping hand fund ;-).