Bargain at Intrade

[ciphergoth]

You can buy shares in Sarah Palin being dropped from the GOP ticket at the bargain price of 11.7 as of right now. That means that you can spend $11.7 on such a future, and it will be worth $100 if she's not on the ticket by election day (and $0 otherwise). I reckon it's worth at least twice that, and if I had spare money for gambling I'd buy a few...

Comments

[valkyriekaren.livejournal.com]

Hmm, I'm not sure I understand stats well enough to muck around with actual money on something like that.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Basically it means that if you think the probability of her being dropped is better than 11.7% - even given that that's what the market currently estimates it at - then it's worth buying...

[purplerabbits.livejournal.com]

Hmm. My Only Puritanical Streak is uncomfortable hearing gambling described as 'buying' or 'shares' though I do look forward to Palin fucking the Republicans over royally...

[valkyriekaren.livejournal.com]

Buying shares basically is gambling, though! You're betting on the probability of an event (a good grain harvest, a particular currency depreciation or whatever).

[simont]

Well, not entirely. One effect of buying shares is that their resale value fluctuates uncertainly and hence you may or may not make money out of it. But another effect is that you gain partial control of the company you buy shares in, and another is that you're contributing to their ability to do whatever it is they're doing.

On that basis it seems excessive to describe a pure gambling proposition as a share buy, since you don't end up with, well, a share in anything.

[uon.livejournal.com]

Also, shares don't mature. It's more like a zero-coupon bond with a high probability of default.

[lovingboth]

Given that it seems you have to go back to 1972 to find a VP candidate who was dropped and looking at some of the ones who have been kept on, I'd almost be tempted to sell.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Looking at how poor her vetting was and how much of a nut she appears to be, and suspicious still about the circumstances surrounding the birth of Trig Paxson Van Palin, I think there's a good chance of a scandal that would entirely rule her out...

[lovingboth]

Re the birth - the increased chance of Down's happening as the mother's age increasing suggests that it could be hers. If I were her and knew it was, I would wave a DNA test and be shouting about how awful it is for those evil Democrats to expect you to have to prove it (and brief the media about how do we know Obama doesn't have dozens of illegitimate kids...)

If I knew it wasn't, I'd say 'yeah, and what real God-fearing mother wouldn't do what I did? Rather than have an abortion, we agreed as a family that this was the best way. Lots of other families have done this over the years of this great nation of ours including [find some examples quick - there are bound to be some in the lives of the presidents]. What are the evil Democrats saying, that we should have had an abortion because Trig has Down's? What are the liberal media doing, trying to ruin the lives of Trig and Chelsea? It's no-one's business but ours and God's and we know we will be able to answer to Him.'

Remember which constituencies she's been picked to appeal to.

[ciphergoth.livejournal.com]

Yeah, the Down thing is pretty strong evidence - someone her age is about a hundred times more likely to have a Down kid than someone Bristol or Willow's age.

[sibelian.livejournal.com]

I think the embarassment of having to drop her might outweigh even that.

[ex-pipistre.livejournal.com]

You really think so? I'm not so sure, even with scandals galore.

After all, as McCain's wife said, she has great foreign policy experience because Alaska is the closest state to Russia- what more could one ask for?