The thing is I do (as I said on my LJ earlier) worry that Palin could win in 2012. 47% of Americans did vote for McCain/Palin and it's reasonably likely that if the economy hasn't improved before the next election Obama will be blamed.
There's no way at all that she's going to win the Republican nomination. There are a lot of bright, libertarian Republicans around, and they can't stand her. Her ultra-right Christian creationist constituency is too small to propel her to the nomination on its own.
I don't know. The other day I did read that 77% of republicans would support Palin as a 2012 candidate for president (will try to find the source for this later). And a fair few of the "bright, libertarian Republicans" would probably back Palin if they thought she could win. Presumably some would hate it, but they might be in the minority.
I would be interested to see the source for that 77% figure, if you get a minute to spare.
I'm certain Palin is not going to be the next President; the Republican elite will make sure of it. Look at the way Fox News is already ripping into her. The economy is going to hell in a handcart, but I think the handcart has trundled so far down the road already that Obama will not be entirely blamed for it, even if there's not much he's going to be able to do about it.
Yes, I think the Fox news treatment of her, and the clear opportunity to use her as a scapegoat over the election loss, mean that she'd stand no chance of getting close.
I can't find it. It was something I used to prove a point on election night that I got off google. A google search now finds much lower figures. So the original figure may, in fact, be bullshit and you may be right :).
(It's possible the numbers have changed quickly, of course - so the 77% may well have been in play earlier on. I'm actually really relieved you can't find 'em.)
When Margaret Thatcher won the conservative leadership in 1975, how many commentators thought she would win the 1979 election, let alone win three consecutive terms?
Regarding Palin, in any risk assessment you have to multiply the chance of the event happening against the damage incurred if it does. It seems to me that the level of damage could be very high indeed.
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I'm certain Palin is not going to be the next President; the Republican elite will make sure of it. Look at the way Fox News is already ripping into her. The economy is going to hell in a handcart, but I think the handcart has trundled so far down the road already that Obama will not be entirely blamed for it, even if there's not much he's going to be able to do about it.
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But yeah - she won't get close, I think. She may run, though - I just don't think she'll get the nomination.
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(It's possible the numbers have changed quickly, of course - so the 77% may well have been in play earlier on. I'm actually really relieved you can't find 'em.)
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Regarding Palin, in any risk assessment you have to multiply the chance of the event happening against the damage incurred if it does. It seems to me that the level of damage could be very high indeed.
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http://www.zazzle.com/sarahpalintees/gifts?cg=196149439037659705
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