ciphergoth: (election)
Paul Crowley ([personal profile] ciphergoth) wrote2007-12-31 12:13 pm
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For [livejournal.com profile] softfruit

Another diagram showing the fortunes of the Lib Dems - I had another go to see if I could show more of what's going on.



Again, the position in the diagram (and the percentages) indicate the share of major party vote that each party gets, and the pie charts indicate the proportion of seats that each gets.

Looking at those polls, the Lib Dems had better hope that Clegg is going to completely turn around the fortunes of the party, or they are facing total irrelevance, which is a long way from the bright hopes entertained after the 2005 elections.

[identity profile] ciphergoth.livejournal.com 2007-12-31 02:48 pm (UTC)(link)
The model assumes that the total number of votes cast does not change, that the votes given to all other parties do not change, and that the proportion that a given party achieves in one constituency compared to another doesn’t change.

This isn't quite "straight swing" - uniform swing is mathematically messy with lots of irritating discontinuities. However, I don't suppose it gives radically different results.